When BlackRock Bitcoin ETF? Detailed Timeline And Implications

BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin spot ETF (iShares Bitcoin Trust) has breathed new life into the market and sparked a strong rally. The hope is that BlackRock will trigger a “Great Accumulation Race” around Bitcoin, fuelled by the fact that 69% of all investors have been unwilling to sell their Bitcoins for over a year, Bitcoinist reported.

Market experts give the BlackRock ETF a high chance of approval. Remarkably, BlackRock has an approval ratio of 575:1, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) ratio when it comes to rejecting Bitcoin spot ETFs is just as clear: 33:0.

But because BlackRock has close ties to US regulators and Democratic politicians, there is room for an optimistic outlook on the likelihood of approval. As K33 Research writes in their latest market analysis, BlackRock is unlikely to spend time and resources if they do not see the chance of approval as very high.

Race For The First Bitcoin Spot ETF

Rumors have already emerged in recent days that BlackRock’s ETF filing could be decided within “days to weeks”, NewsBTC reported. But what are the exact deadlines? The SEC’s regulations provide a clue.

The important thing to know here is that the deadlines for the SEC and its decision on the iShares Bitcoin Trust depend on when the application is published in the Federal Register for comments. Since this has not officially happened yet, there are only approximate estimates so far.

Nevertheless, K33 Research has drawn up a rough timeline based on the SEC’s deadlines. Theoretically, a decision can be reached within four time intervals, with the decision process following a scheme of anchored decision dates.

After publication of the application in the Federal Register, the SEC has 45 days in the first time interval to approve, reject or extend review of the ETF. Assuming the application is published in the Register on June 29, the SEC’s first deadline would be August 12, 2023. Similar inflection points occur 45 days later, 90 days later and 60 days later.