{"id":10112,"date":"2026-02-20T06:00:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T06:00:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/dont-fall-for-the-bitcoin-trap-analyst-explains-why-recovery-to-76000-is-not-a-good-thing\/"},"modified":"2026-02-20T06:00:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T06:00:27","slug":"dont-fall-for-the-bitcoin-trap-analyst-explains-why-recovery-to-76000-is-not-a-good-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/dont-fall-for-the-bitcoin-trap-analyst-explains-why-recovery-to-76000-is-not-a-good-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"Don\u2019t Fall For The Bitcoin Trap: Analyst Explains Why Recovery To $76,000 Is Not A Good Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction.<\/p>\n

Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that any bounce could invite new selling. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls.<\/p>\n

The $76,000 Breakeven Wall<\/b><\/h2>\n

Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the notion that<\/a> any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here might not actually be a good thing. Sherlock\u2019s argument is based on the Bitcoin holdings of Strategy. At the time of writing, the company holds 714,644 BTC at an average cost basis of $76,052. That stash represents roughly 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now that Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and the company is sitting at an estimated<\/a> unrealized loss of about $5.7 billion at current prices. In the analyst’s view, every push to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this large concentration of supply closer to breakeven.<\/p>\n

Breakeven levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky because it brings Strategy\u2019s position back to its average entry price, and many large holders might consider reducing exposure.<\/p>\n

That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell.<\/a> The company has repeatedly stated that it has no intention of offloading its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a severe downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price drops below $10,000.<\/p>\n

ETF Pressure And Bitcoin Cost Basis<\/b><\/h2>\n

Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that might lead to a bull trap. As it stands, about 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000.<\/p>\n

Since late 2025, these ETFs have recorded more than $6 billion in net outflows, and the Bitcoin price might face another pressure even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin wealth has a cost basis above $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025 are sitting on losses, and a rally to their entry levels could also be a bull trap.<\/p>\n

Therefore, a climb into the $72,000 to $76,000 range could be a bull trap. If it doesn\u2019t, then the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level triggered selling, then Bitcoin might never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin\u2019s price action is struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands, Bitcoin is now moving in a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are undecided on its next direction. Some see the current structure as a base for another push higher, but others warn that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10113,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22,28,29,32,33,34,35,36,4593,498],"class_list":["post-10112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-sherlock","tag-spot-bitcoin-etfs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10112\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10113"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}