According to Glassnode analysts, At-the-money (ATM) implied volatility across maturities has significantly dropped to around 48%, down significantly from recent highs. Because ATM IV reflects the market\u2019s expected move, the decline suggests traders are no longer betting on an immediate price crash.<\/p>\n
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![\"Bitcoin\"](\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HBnltPEXIAEpbSk?format=jpg&name=4096x4096\")
Notably, this shift is reinforced by moves in DVOL, an indicator for measuring aggregate implied volatility expectations. Following initial spikes during the market liquidation in late January\/early February, DVOL has fallen by roughly 10 volatility points over the past two weeks, signaling that extreme hedging demand is easing out.<\/p>\n
In addition, the short-term volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive. Earlier this month, one-week VRP plunged to deeply negative levels at -45, as realized volatility far exceeded implied. Since then, implied volatility has repriced higher while realized volatility has stabilized, restoring a premium in short-dated options.<\/p>\n
Together, these metrics suggest that panic pricing is being reset, and expectations for outsized, volatile moves have declined.\n<\/p>\n
Bitcoin Traders Remain Alert To Downside<\/b><\/h2>\n
Despite the cooling in volatility expectations, other metrics show that traders are maintaining a defensive market position.<\/p>\n
For example, the Put skew, which measures the relative demand for downside protection versus upside exposure, remains quite heightened despite moving off the extreme hedge. After bottoming near the 7 volatility points, the one-week 25-delta skew has rebounded toward 14 vol. The recovery indicates that while extreme fear has subsided, demand for downside insurance remains firm.<\/p>\n
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![\"Bitcoin\"](\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/HBnmaacXkAAoLrz?format=png&name=small\")
The taker flow data also tells a similar story. Puts represented two-thirds of last week\u2019s options activity, with outright put buying representing about 34% of total flow. The dominance of protective positioning suggests that market participants are not fully convinced the correction has run its course.<\/p>\n
In conclusion, the options market is signaling a more measured outlook, where expectations for immediate turmoil have faded, but traders are hedging to hedge against the risk of another downside.\u00a0 At press time, Bitcoin trades at $67,628 following a 0.92% gain in the last 24 hours.<\/p>\n
More data from Glassnode also shows that Dealers are broadly short gamma across a wide price range between $70,000 and $58,000, a positioning structure that could amplify selling pressure if Bitcoin extends losses. Conversely, a large gamma concentration around $75,000 suggests positioning for a potential rebound.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Bearish sentiments continue to dominate the Bitcoin market as the premier cryptocurrency looks to record a fifth consecutive monthly loss. Presently, prices are consolidating beneath the $70,000 mark, as market bulls struggle to force a decisive breakout above the resistance zone.\u00a0 Amid this choppy price action, data from the Bitcoin options market shows that traders…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10143,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22,456,35,36,952,4605,4606],"class_list":["post-10142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-options","tag-btcusd","tag-btcusdt","tag-glassnode","tag-market-caution","tag-market-volatitlity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}