Crypto prices came under pressure again on Friday as Treasury yields, not crude, became the macro variable traders could not ignore. Bitcoin slipped back below $69,000 after a short-lived relief rally earlier this week, while ether also traded lower, as hopes for a near-term easing in the Iran conflict faded and the US 10-year yield stayed near 4.42%.<\/p>\n
That is the core argument The Kobeissi Letter pushed in a widely shared thread<\/a> via X: the market\u2019s center of gravity has shifted from the oil spike itself to the rates shock that follows it. \u201cThe bond market is, by far, the biggest problem for the US right now, much bigger than the energy price situation,\u201d Adam Kobeissi wrote.<\/p>\n In the longer note, the firm sharpened the point further: \u201cFor weeks, markets have been fixated on oil, war headlines, and geopolitical escalation. But beneath the surface, a much larger force has been building, and it\u2019s now beginning to take control. The bond market is now dictating the path of equities, commodities, and ultimately, policy itself.\u201d<\/p>\n The market action this week fits that thesis. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said he would pause attacks on Iran\u2019s energy plants for 10 days, until April 6, saying talks were \u201cgoing very well.\u201d Yields initially eased on the headline, but the move did not hold.<\/p>\n By the end of the session, the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed to 4.415%, the highest since July, while mortgage rates had already risen to their highest since October and Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war had shifted the balance of risks toward inflation. Futures markets had moved to price virtually no chance of a Fed cut in 2026.<\/p>\n And the data shows the stress. The MOVE Index, a gauge of Treasury volatility, is at 115.02, up 17.86% on the day. Kobeissi also showed a FedWatch distribution that, in Kobeissi\u2019s reading, now points to a base case of rates staying broadly unchanged through September 2027, a dramatic reversal from late 2025, when markets were still debating how many cuts the Fed would deliver in 2026.<\/p>\n This is truly historic:<\/p>\n In just 27 days of the Iran War, the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES.<\/p>\n Just weeks ago, investors were debating how many rate cuts the Fed would implement in 2026.<\/p>\n Now? There’s a 48% chance of an interest rate HIKE by January 2027.<\/p>\n And,\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/ccQ91LLH3g<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/ve2drzl4Rb<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The firm tied that repricing to a labor market it says has deteriorated even before the latest inflation shock, citing deep downward revisions to payroll data over the last three years and a February unemployment duration of 25.7 weeks.<\/p>\n For crypto, the message is straightforward: this is still trading as a liquidity-sensitive macro asset class. When Trump first said on March 23 that the US would postpone strikes and pursue talks, bitcoin rallied more than 5% to as high as $71,794 in New York, with altcoins also moving higher. That relief move has since unwound. By Friday, bitcoin was trading at $68,639 and ether at $2,061.81, both down on the day as the market rotated back to yields, policy risk and tighter financial conditions.<\/p>\n BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle more directly in his usual shorthand. \u201cAlmost there \u2026 If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?\u201d he wrote, referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.<\/p>\n Almost there \u2026<\/p>\n If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market? pic.twitter.com\/7H2qakadgT<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\n