{"id":11598,"date":"2026-05-10T05:00:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T05:00:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/analyst-predicts-biggest-bitcoin-bull-trap-of-the-cycle-calls-out-50-crash-to-42000\/"},"modified":"2026-05-10T05:00:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T05:00:26","slug":"analyst-predicts-biggest-bitcoin-bull-trap-of-the-cycle-calls-out-50-crash-to-42000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/analyst-predicts-biggest-bitcoin-bull-trap-of-the-cycle-calls-out-50-crash-to-42000\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Predicts Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trap Of The Cycle, Calls Out 50% Crash To $42,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin’s price recovery is not a new beginning: it is a familiar ending. That is the warning from a crypto analyst, who is of the notion that the current Bitcoin price action is playing out a bull trap the market has seen before and that the setup is pointing to a destination that sees the cryptocurrency crashing by almost 50% from current price levels.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Mirrors Key Stepping Stones From 2022 Bear Cycle<\/h2>\n

Chiefy’s analysis centers on<\/a> a structural comparison between Bitcoin’s current price sequence and the step-by-step decline that defined the 2022 bear market. The framework identifies a pattern of bear cycle stepping stones, which is a series of lower highs and lower lows dressed up as recoveries on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart.<\/p>\n

This analysis is in reference to Bitcoin’s price action since it broke above $82,000 earlier in the week. Bitcoin is pressing into the 1-day 200 moving average, a zone that has already acted as resistance during a previous failed recovery attempt in January 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The analyst also pointed to the 1-week 200 moving average at the lower support region and the 1-month 350 moving average below it, suggesting that a breakdown could force BTC through multiple long-term trend levels before finding a stronger base.<\/p>\n

This is exactly like the 2022 bear market. In the previous bear cycle, Bitcoin did not fall in a straight line. It produced relief rallies that looked convincing enough to pull traders back in, only for the price to roll over again.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Based on this view, the current rebound to the $80,000 range is not the start of a lasting breakout. It is the largest bull trap of the cycle. His projected path after the bull trap will see Bitcoin leave<\/a> $82,000 and then go on a free fall to $50,000, then recover to $63,000, and finally crash to $42,000 again.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @0xChiefy On X<\/a><\/p>\n

Why This Rally Cannot Be Trusted<\/b><\/h2>\n

The next move in the sequence, a crash to $50,000, would represent a decline of approximately 39% from current levels. The subsequent bounce to $63,000 would restore confidence briefly before the final descent to $42,000 completes the pattern. This final descent will translate to an almost 50% crash from current levels.<\/p>\n

Interestingly, CryptoQuant researchers warned that<\/a> Bitcoin’s apparent demand metric, which tracks 30-day changes in estimated on-chain spot buying activity, stayed negative throughout April’s entire price rally. This shows that the late April and early May move that took Bitcoin to $80,000 was mostly due to higher perpetual futures demand, which is exactly like 2022\u2019s bear market onset.<\/p>\n

The crash warning is also coming at a time when Bitcoin ETF flows are no longer offering<\/a> a clean bullish background, as they have now posted consistent net outflows of a total of $423.15 million in the past two days. <\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $80,367.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin’s price recovery is not a new beginning: it is a familiar ending. That is the warning from a crypto analyst, who is of the notion that the current Bitcoin price action is playing out a bull trap the market has seen before and that the setup is pointing to a destination that sees the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22,28,29,32,35,51,250,254],"class_list":["post-11598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btcusd","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market","tag-cryptocurrency"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11598\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}