{"id":12119,"date":"2026-06-07T05:00:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T05:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/clarity-act-momentum-slows-as-approval-odds-fall-to-60\/"},"modified":"2026-06-07T05:00:34","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T05:00:34","slug":"clarity-act-momentum-slows-as-approval-odds-fall-to-60","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/clarity-act-momentum-slows-as-approval-odds-fall-to-60\/","title":{"rendered":"CLARITY Act Momentum Slows As Approval Odds Fall To 60%"},"content":{"rendered":"

A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research.<\/p>\n

Senate Calendar Creates A Bottleneck<\/h2>\n

Alex Thorn revised his probability<\/a> estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown increasingly crowded with competing priorities.<\/p>\n

Next week’s agenda is expected to be taken up largely by FISA-related business following a failed reauthorization vote, leaving little room for crypto legislation to advance.<\/p>\n

Thorn said the obstacle is no longer political will \u2014 support for the bill has not collapsed. The problem is time.<\/p>\n

\n

i just sent this note to clients lowering my odds of 2026 clarity act passage from 75% immediately post-markup to 60% today<\/p>\n

i said in may that the senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened. last night the FISA reauth vote failed, so now next\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/2EcxMb3Hwh<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 5, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Unresolved Issues Add To The Delay<\/h2>\n

Two sticking points remain on the table: lawmaker ethics rules and illicit finance provisions tied to the bill. Neither has been resolved, and the lack of movement on both fronts has further complicated the path forward.<\/p>\n

Despite the lowered odds, Thorn said he remains optimistic about the bill’s eventual chances \u2014 though he cautioned that the timeline is now more fluid than many had assumed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The CLARITY Act is widely considered the most consequential crypto legislation currently before Congress. Its central aim is to settle a long-running dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over who regulates what in the digital asset space.<\/p>\n

Under the proposal, tokens classified as commodities would fall under CFTC oversight, while those deemed securities would stay with the SEC \u2014 a distinction that would reshape how exchanges operate and what compliance requirements apply to crypto projects.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Supporters say federal clarity on those boundaries would cut regulatory uncertainty and keep crypto development from migrating abroad.<\/p>\n

A Window That May Be Closing<\/p>\n

Senator Cynthia Lummis had previously pointed to July 4 as a marker for getting market-structure legislation moving in the Senate.<\/p>\n

Thorn’s revised figure puts pressure on that informal target. His assessment reflects scheduling constraints, not a shift in how lawmakers view the bill itself.<\/p>\n

For crypto stakeholders awaiting regulatory certainty, the revised outlook points to a potentially longer path toward comprehensive legislation.<\/p>\n

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A July 4 target date for advancing crypto market-structure legislation through the Senate is now looking less certain, according to Galaxy Digital’s head of research. Senate Calendar Creates A Bottleneck Alex Thorn revised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 from 75% down to 60%, citing a Senate schedule that has grown…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[2845,51,55,419,3278,939],"class_list":["post-12119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-clarity-act","tag-crypto","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-digital-currency","tag-galaxy-digital","tag-security"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}