{"id":3704,"date":"2025-03-25T06:00:25","date_gmt":"2025-03-25T06:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-to-brutally-bleed-lower-or-break-new-ath-in-q2-expert-warns\/"},"modified":"2025-03-25T06:00:25","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T06:00:25","slug":"bitcoin-to-brutally-bleed-lower-or-break-new-ath-in-q2-expert-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-to-brutally-bleed-lower-or-break-new-ath-in-q2-expert-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin To \u2018Brutally Bleed Lower\u2019 Or Break New ATH In Q2, Expert Warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has sounded a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead. Citing his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk Score (DRS) model, Coutts contends the leading cryptocurrency\u2019s price faces one of two sharp outcomes: a severe downturn or a surge to new all-time highs (ATH).<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s Q2 Outlook<\/h2>\n

In commentary<\/a> shared via X today, Coutts highlights his \u201cfirst pass\u201d at the DRS model, noting that the market\u2019s most recent instance of \u201cCat 5 euphoria\u201d in Q1 2024 was followed by a pullback of only around 30%. He contrasts this with a comparable episode in 2019, which saw a 50% decline\u2014widening to 70% if the COVID shock is accounted for.<\/p>\n

\u201cLooking back at Q1 2024\u2019s Cat 5 euphoria\u2014which I flagged back then (in February 2024)\u2014I\u2019m still surprised the pullback was only -30%. The only similar move outside a cycle top was in 2019, with a 50% drop (70% if you factor in the COVID shock),\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Coutts emphasizes that 2019 is a better barometer for current market conditions than 2021. The rationale, he observes, is that the 2019 rally preceded a major global liquidity expansion. By 2021, Bitcoin had already appreciated 12x off its lows while worldwide liquidity grew by 30%, reflecting a vastly different macro environment.<\/p>\n

Assessing the market\u2019s present risk level, Coutts points out that Bitcoin\u2019s DRS metric has slid into the \u201clow-risk quantile,\u201d a zone he says offers minimal predictive power for future prices. \u201cSo, where are we now? Bitcoin\u2019s DRS is in the low-risk quantile\u2014where predictive power is low. If Bitcoin has peaked, we should expect a brutal bleed lower,\u201d he cautions, before adding that the possibility of a rebound remains high.<\/p>\n

Global Liquidity On The Rise<\/h2>\n

Coutts then underscores global liquidity\u2019s potential to trigger another Bitcoin rally. He believes an upcoming inflection point in global liquidity\u2014driven by the need to stimulate heavily indebted economies\u2014will likely fuel the derivatives market, which he calculates to be four times bigger than the spot market.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not my outlook though. Global liquidity is ready to inflect that will re-invigorate the derivatives market (4x Spot), potentially jettisoning Bitcoin to new ATHs by May (or end of Q2 for extra padding).\u201d<\/p>\n

Another key insight from Coutts centers on the Global Liquidity Index, which he says has been in contraction for an unprecedented stretch. \u201cThis marks the longest contraction of the Global Liquidity Index in Bitcoin\u2019s history\u2014three years and counting (measured from the peak). Previous tightening episodes (2014\u20132016 and 2018\u20132019) lasted < 2yrs. How much longer will this go on?\u201d<\/p>\n

He argues that a renewed injection of liquidity is inevitable, pointing out that governments\u2014especially those with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100%\u2014would be hard-pressed to refinance if nominal GDP lags behind rising interest costs. \u201cThe fiat, fractional-reserve, debt-based system will implode without liquidity injections. The spice must flow.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $87,703.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst Jamie Coutts has sounded a stark warning for Bitcoin in the months ahead. Citing his new Bitcoin Derivatives Risk Score (DRS) model, Coutts contends the leading cryptocurrency\u2019s price faces one of two sharp outcomes: a severe downturn or a surge to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin\u2019s Q2 Outlook In commentary…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[22,28,29,32,33,34],"class_list":["post-3704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3704"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3704\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}