{"id":6039,"date":"2025-07-24T05:00:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T05:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july\/"},"modified":"2025-07-24T05:00:33","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T05:00:33","slug":"crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/crypto-markets-fate-hangs-on-the-last-days-of-july\/","title":{"rendered":"Crypto Market\u2019s Fate Hangs On The Last Days Of July"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin hovers just below its mid\u2011May record at roughly\u202f$119,000, while the global crypto\u2011asset capitalisation approaches\u202f$4 trillion, but traders say the real test will come in the last week of July, when an unusually dense cluster of US macro\u2011policy events collides with an intensifying legal battle over President\u202fTrump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

“The last few days of July will set the stage for markets for the rest of the year imo. FOMC meeting where dovish dissents are looking very likely. QRA meeting where we will get a look into how willing Bessent is going to be to try to weaponize treasury issuance for the first time since being chair. Tariff letter deadlines. The Supreme Court will begin deliberating on whether tariffs via executive order are legal or not. No big edge on either side right now personally, will just react once we get clarity. Stay frosty,\u201d Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin wrote<\/a> via X.<\/p>\n

July\u2019s Final Days Could Shape Crypto<\/h2>\n

The two\u2011day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on\u202f29\u201330\u202fJuly is the first shot. Governor Christopher\u202fWaller, speaking last week, laid out the case for an immediate 25\u2011basis\u2011point rate cut, arguing that tariff\u2011linked inflation looks \u201ctemporary\u201d and that the labour market is \u201cunder strain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prediction\u2011market platform Kalshi assigns a 40\u202f% probability to two cuts and a 13\u202f% probability to three cuts by December; Goldman\u202fSachs now places the first move in September, but traders emphasise that even a single dovish dissent next week would cement that timetable. As The Kobeissi Letter summed<\/a> up in a widely shared post: \u201cRate cuts are coming\u202f\u2026\u202fNext week\u2019s Fed meeting will pave the path for a September rate cut.\u201d<\/p>\n

Treasury Secretary Scott\u202fBessent has broken with predecessors\u2019 reticence by all but instructing the central bank to move sooner. \u201cIf [tariff] inflation isn\u2019t sticky, they could do it sooner than September,\u201d he told Fox News on\u202f1\u202fJuly, after stating two months earlier that \u201cthe bond market is sending a signal that the Fed should be cutting.\u201d<\/p>\n

Only hours after the Fed decision, Bessent will unveil the Treasury\u2019s third\u2011quarter borrowing plans at the Quarterly Refunding Announcement. The agenda published on\u202f11\u202fJuly flags a noon release on\u202f30\u202fJuly. Desks are watching not just the size but the maturity mix: Bessent\u2019s advisers have floated heavier use of short\u2011dated bills to \u201cmanage the yield curve,\u201d a move that would soak up the very cash that cycles into stablecoins and crypto risk.<\/p>\n

Tariffs Come Back Into Focus<\/h2>\n

Trade policy is the second pressure point. A 7\u202fJuly executive order extended reciprocal tariffs and launched a volley of tariff\u2011rate letters to trading partners; the new levies take effect on\u202f1\u202fAugust unless renegotiated. Bessent flies to Stockholm next week in a last\u2011minute bid to defer a mooted 100\u202f% surcharge on Chinese imports, underscoring how fluid the landscape remains.<\/p>\n

Even if diplomats buy time, lawyers may not. The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has set 31\u202fJuly for expedited oral argument on V.O.S.\u202fSelections\u202fv.\u202fTrump, a case that could decide whether a president can impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Petitioners have already asked the Supreme Court for review before judgment, calling the tariffs a \u201c$600\u202fbn annual tax.\u201d A ruling to curtail executive trade powers would remove what many bitcoin bulls see as a long\u2011term inflation tail\u2011risk; the opposite outcome could entrench the policy.<\/p>\n

Real yields\u2014now the dominant macro driver of Bitcoin\u2014move inversely to rate\u2011cut expectations and Treasury supply. The benchmark 10\u2011year has fallen about 30\u202fbp in three sessions to 4.34\u202f%, mirroring BTC\u2019s 8\u202f% bounce over the same period.<\/p>\n

For now, the market\u2019s playbook is simple: Watch the Fed dots, count the bills in the QRA, read the tariff letters\u2014and, as Jauvin advised, \u201cstay frosty.\u201d<\/p>\n

At press time, total crypto market cap stood at $3.81 trillion.<\/p>\n

\"total<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin hovers just below its mid\u2011May record at roughly\u202f$119,000, while the global crypto\u2011asset capitalisation approaches\u202f$4 trillion, but traders say the real test will come in the last week of July, when an unusually dense cluster of US macro\u2011policy events collides with an intensifying legal battle over President\u202fTrump\u2019s tariffs. “The last few days of July will…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6040,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[22,32,51,53,2905,254,55],"class_list":["post-6039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-market-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-news","tag-crypto-price","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-cryptocurrency-market-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6039"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6039\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}