From a technical standpoint, the analyst sees no reason to declare the top is in. \u201cTechnicals still look fine. Price still looks okay. We had a pullback. All that is fine,\u201d he said, emphasizing that Bitcoin has not yet exhibited the typical parabolic advance associated with major tops. Nor have other macro or on-chain metrics shown signs of terminal overheating. \u201cWe don’t have other metrics screaming from the rooftop saying it’s time yet.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, the short-term setup is underwhelming. After a cup-and-handle breakout that briefly pushed price toward the $122,000\u2013$123,000 region, momentum faded. Olszewicz doubts such levels can be reclaimed soon: \u201cIn the next two weeks we’ll know if we can start to creep back towards $120,000, which is asking a lot admittedly for August.\u201d The wildcard, he said, is ETF flows. \u201cDo we see ETF flows for any reason? Then do we see treasury companies continuing to buy? Those are the marginal buyers right now.\u201d<\/p>\n
He suggested that ETF buyers could return due to a combination of underweight positioning, opportunistic dip-buying, and monthly rebalancing dynamics. Still, he remains neutral overall. \u201cJust a general softening of any bullishness we may have had,\u201d he said. \u201cNow it’d be a different story if this is October and we’re seeing this. That’s not normal.\u201d<\/p>\n
A further reason for caution is the collapse in futures basis across major assets. \u201cPremium is all the way down to under 7% on BTC. It’s under 8% on ETH. And I think SOL is a little more illiquid, but even SOL is way down\u201415% from 35%,\u201d he noted. That contraction in futures premiums, typically a sign of speculative demand drying up, reflects a broader risk-off mood. \u201cNot a lot of bullish sentiment, not a lot of craziness,\u201d Olszewicz observed.<\/p>\n
On-chain risk metrics confirm the trend. \u201cThere’s a decline here in risk appetite,\u201d he said, referring to metrics like unrealized profit versus MVRV. He added that if Bitcoin were to enter a parabolic advance, \u201cyou will see this metric shoot up\u2026 But what\u2019s it going to take?\u201d<\/p>\n
Q4 Or Bust<\/h2>\n
He floated a few possibilities: rate cuts, weakening Fed independence, or perhaps just seasonal strength and macro chaos in Q4. But for now, he advised traders to \u201ctake it easy on the 50X leverage,\u201d especially those who\u2019ve already made significant gains this cycle. \u201cDo I need to put risk back on? Do I need to be as risky as I was earlier?\u201d he asked rhetorically. \u201cOr does it make more sense to be less risky here?\u201d<\/p>\n
From a macroeconomic perspective, the picture is mixed. Inflation data from Trueflation remains low\u2014currently at 1.65%\u2014but Olszewicz warned that new post\u2013August 1 tariffs may raise prices in the months ahead. \u201cWe are adding inflationary pressures with tariffs, no doubt about it,\u201d he said, though the effect will take time to appear in the data. Meanwhile, core PCE is headed in the wrong direction, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is printing 2.1% growth for Q3\u2014hardly recessionary, but not robust either.<\/p>\n
Labor market data continues to cloud the outlook. \u201cIf we account for a non-collapsing labor force participation, we could be as high as 4.9% on the actual unemployment rate,\u201d Olszewicz warned. \u201cAnd we\u2019re continuing to see a degradation in job availability for manufacturing,\u201d particularly in \u201cHeartland Rust Belt types of jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n
Liquidity dynamics are also in flux. He drew attention to the draining of the Fed\u2019s reverse repo facility\u2014once a $2 trillion reservoir of sidelined capital\u2014which has supported risk assets through 2023 and 2024. \u201cAs this gets drained closer to completion, there\u2019s a potential likelihood for liquidity hiccups and a liquidity intervention by the Fed,\u201d he said. Importantly, this has kept overall US liquidity flat, offsetting quantitative tightening. \u201cDespite QT, the drain of the reverse repo has offset QT, and US liquidity by this metric has been basically flat since 2022.\u201d<\/p>\n
What changed the game, Olszewicz said, was not liquidity per se, but the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. \u201cThat has really been, in my opinion, a big difference maker,\u201d he explained. \u201cWe got ETF approvals here, ETF started trading here, and the rest is history as far as flows are concerned.\u201d<\/p>\n
In conclusion, Olszewicz emphasized that while the broader risk appetite has declined and price action remains dull, there is no evidence yet that the Bitcoin cycle has topped. \u201cThe cycle\u2019s probably not over,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s just sleeping\u2014and Q4 will ultimately determine whether it wakes up.\u201d<\/p>\n
At press time, BTC traded at $113,041.<\/p>\n
![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/BTCUSDT_2025-08-05_16-38-14.png?resize=1024%2C454\")
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
In his August 5 \u201cMacro Monday\u201d livestream, crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a review of the market\u2019s late-summer state, arguing that while Bitcoin\u2019s price action has gone quiet, the broader cycle remains intact. “We’re in this pocket of seasonal weakness for August and September that we typically see most years,” he explained, pointing to seasonality…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6261,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[22,28,29,32,33,34],"class_list":["post-6260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}