{"id":7055,"date":"2025-09-16T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T05:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-set-for-short-squeeze-before-long-trap-in-october\/"},"modified":"2025-09-16T05:00:48","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T05:00:48","slug":"bitcoin-set-for-short-squeeze-before-long-trap-in-october","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-set-for-short-squeeze-before-long-trap-in-october\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Set For Short Squeeze Before Long Trap In October"},"content":{"rendered":"

A closely watched derivatives strategist expects Bitcoin\u2019s next major move to begin with a violent short squeeze, only to flip into a punishing \u201clong trap\u201d as October opens\u2014a sequence he argues rhymes more with late-2023 than with the euphoric blow-offs of March and December 2024.<\/p>\n

In a thread posted on September 12 and expanded over the weekend, analyst Nik Patel (@cointradernik) said the current positioning backdrop \u201cis less like March and Dec \u201924 crossovers and more like Dec \u201923,\u201d warning that the market is set up for a \u201cmulti-week whipsaw going into early\/mid Oct.\u201d He added a specific liquidation map: \u201cGive me $1.5bn in shorts liqs on the weekly and then $2.8bn of long liqs into Oct 7th pls.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

pic.twitter.com\/LVsY4bU99o<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Nik (@cointradernik) September 12, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What Is Different This Time For Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n

What makes this setup different, in his view, is the balance between spot and derivatives flows and the breadth of basis trades. \u201cSpot vol as % of total vol [is] lower here than prior crossovers for Others OI vs BTC OI (March \u201924 and Dec \u201924),\u201d he wrote, arguing that if spot demand were truly in the driver\u2019s seat \u201cwe should expect spot vol as a % of total vol to be higher not lower.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, he sees \u201ca combination of basis trade across a broader range of markets than just BTC & ETH but also more directional levered shorts than prior occasions,\u201d with the immediate \u201cupside risk\u2026 even greater for a short liq cascade first.\u201d Funding, he noted, is \u201cbenign\u201d relative to those earlier peaks.<\/p>\n

Real-time funding data broadly corroborate the \u201cbenign\u201d characterization. Across major venues, BTC perpetual funding hovered close to flat in recent sessions\u2014generally in the +0.005% to +0.01% per-8-hour range\u2014well below the overheated prints typical of euphoric tops. That keeps the door open to a squeeze without the need to first unwind extreme long leverage.<\/p>\n

Sentiment, Nik argued, is still closer to \u201cdisbelief\u201d than euphoria. He contrasted March 2024\u2019s ETF frenzy and December 2024\u2019s post-election optimism with today\u2019s more skeptical tone, pointing to a still-elevated pool of sidelined capital. \u201cBoth prior crossovers had stablecoin dominance trough at 5% ish. We are currently at 6.1% \u2014 imo this is textbook disbelief\/Sidelined September positioning,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

In his base case, that war chest ultimately fuels year-end risk-taking once the whipsaw plays out: \u201cWe will almost certainly get the positioning whipsaw and bear trap during that quarterly end & monthly open window of weakness, but there are a lot more stables ready to be deployed here into year-end.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a self-aware aside, Nik even shared a machine-generated distillation of his view: \u201cChatGPT coming to a similar conclusion here after I fed all these charts in, idk if that inspires confidence or concern about my view though lol.\u201d<\/p>\n

ChatGPT wrote: \u201cPast crossovers: signaled end-phase altseason blowoffs, fueled by euphoric longs with no dry powder left. This crossover: signals pre-phase potential \u2014 leverage is already there, but it\u2019s balanced\/shorter, with capital still on the sidelines (stables). This is why the funding differential is so important: \u2022 High funding + low stables = top-like conditions. Low funding + high stables = squeeze-ready conditions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Renowned crypto analyst CRG (@MacroCRG) consented<\/a>: \u201cAgree with him that a big short liq event is likely before a big long liq event still lots of positioning to unwind imo from ppl expecting a bearish September. In saying that, would like the coins to bounce soon, many are at\/near key pivots.\u201d<\/p>\n

As ever with path-dependent derivatives tape, the trigger matters. Nik cautioned that a \u201cmassive short liquidation event\u201d in the coming week could flip the script if it invites \u201clate longs\u201d and spikes funding into October. But absent that sudden shift, his base case remains a two-step: an upside liquidation cascade that resets shorts, followed by a rug-pull on over-eager longs into the October 7 window.<\/p>\n

Traders watching for confirmation will focus on whether funding stays contained as price lifts, whether spot participation actually broadens rather than fades, and whether stablecoin deployment reduces the cash cushion he cites.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $114,852.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A closely watched derivatives strategist expects Bitcoin\u2019s next major move to begin with a violent short squeeze, only to flip into a punishing \u201clong trap\u201d as October opens\u2014a sequence he argues rhymes more with late-2023 than with the euphoric blow-offs of March and December 2024. In a thread posted on September 12 and expanded over…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7056,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[22,28,29,32,33,34],"class_list":["post-7055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7055"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7055\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}