{"id":8087,"date":"2025-11-07T06:00:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T06:00:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/did-bitcoin-just-bottom-trader-says-the-low-must-form-now\/"},"modified":"2025-11-07T06:00:29","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T06:00:29","slug":"did-bitcoin-just-bottom-trader-says-the-low-must-form-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/did-bitcoin-just-bottom-trader-says-the-low-must-form-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Did Bitcoin Just Bottom? Trader Says The Low Must Form Now"},"content":{"rendered":"

A day after another billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne says his core thesis is unchanged: the bull cycle\u2019s top is \u201cnot in,\u201d and the market is in the process of printing a weekly cycle low that could set up one more leg higher into year-end. \u201cI\u2019ve been banging on the drum about the high not being in,\u201d he said in a November 5 video, adding that he remains \u201ca BTC maxi from the spot perspective,\u201d despite tactical longs and shorts that have been hit-and-miss during the recent volatility.<\/p>\n

Is The Bitcoin Bottom In?<\/h2>\n

Mayne framed<\/a> the selloff\u2014coming less than a month after an almost $20 billion wipeout on October 10\u2014as a feature, not a bug, of late-cycle price discovery. He argued that speculative leverage rapidly re-accumulated in altcoins and that majors still offer sufficient volatility with clearer structure. \u201cPeople were right back on with the leverage\u2026 You really can\u2019t teach an old dog new tricks,\u201d he said, while emphasizing he now \u201cprimarily focus[es] on the majors\u201d and holds a core spot stack he hasn\u2019t sold.<\/p>\n

His near-term timing anchor is cycle theory. Drawing on the four-year template popularized by Bob Loukas, Mayne said he expects the broader crypto top to land between late 2025 and early 2026, but he stressed the immediate setup is about nailing a weekly low within a narrow window that \u201cextends until about mid next week, November 10.\u201d<\/p>\n

He wants to see \u201ctime and space away from this low\u201d and a reclaim of the monthly open around $110,000\u2013$112,000 to confirm that the decline has been exhausted. If that structure forms, he intends to treat $98,000 as the operative bull-market invalidation on a weekly-closing basis: \u201cThat will confirm to me that this is our bull market invalidation\u2026 at least in the worst case you have a cut point at like $100k Bitcoin.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n

Mayne supplemented the timing view with a cross-asset read that he says has been reliable in prior impulses: gold tends to rally first, with Bitcoin following \u201cabout 60 to 90 days later.\u201d He cited chart work showing gold\u2019s advance now roughly 80\u201390 days old, which, if the relationship holds, would \u201cline up very well with Bitcoin being ready to make its next move.\u201d He also expects the BTC-versus-gold cross to bounce, implying outperformance of Bitcoin over the precious metal through year-end: \u201cI\u2019m pretty confident this chart is due for a big bounce and we\u2019re going to see gold underperform Bitcoin for the remainder of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

A more subjective\u2014but, in his telling, telling\u2014input is the absence of a true \u201cblow-off\u201d in Bitcoin versus the vertical arcs seen in AI-heavy equities and gold. With megacaps like Nvidia running hard since the spring and gold printing a sharp leg higher, he argued that \u201cit just doesn\u2019t sit right\u2026 that Bitcoin hasn\u2019t had [its blow-off],\u201d suggesting latent upside energy remains to be released if the weekly low locks in.<\/p>\n

On market microstructure and seasonality, Mayne pointed to early-month dynamics. In many green months, he said, the low forms in the first third of the month, analogous to how Monday\u2019s range often frames the week for intraday traders. If November is destined to close higher, an early-month low coupled with a monthly-open reclaim would be consistent with his cycle read. \u201cIf we\u2019re bullish for November\u2026 I want to be a bull above the monthly open,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

The scenario analysis was not one-sided. Mayne repeatedly acknowledged bear signals that have emerged on higher timeframes, including a weekly structure break, prior sweeps on the weekly and monthly, and building momentum divergences.<\/p>\n

He warned of the possibility that the recent range resolves as distribution\u2014\u201cmaybe the banks literally came in\u2026 and they\u2019ve just been distributing on us here\u201d\u2014and laid out a lower-high path in which a rally fizzles beneath or just above the prior peak before breaking down. \u201cThere\u2019s a world where we make an all-time high, but it\u2019s just a weak one\u2026 you\u2019re going to have the biggest bear div of all bear divs up here,\u201d he said, cautioning that a marginal new high followed by a swift rejection would flip his posture.<\/p>\n

In the medium-term, he remains open to two competing macro arcs. In the base case, the classic four-year rhythm holds, the late-2025 window marks the cycle top, and 2026 skews bearish, though he expects drawdowns on Bitcoin to be \u201ctruncated\u201d relative to prior 80% collapses given deeper institutional participation.<\/p>\n

In the alternative, the market \u201cright-translates\u201d\u2014an atypical extension in which a new all-time high could print as late as Q1 2026\u2014forcing a reassessment of the four-year template. Either way, he said, his plan is to sell strength on the next leg and reassess if the market presents higher-low continuation after a new high: \u201cIf the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mayne also flagged the US dollar as a 2026 risk pivot, arguing the DXY is carving a \u201cserious low\u201d on multi-month and yearly structures that could precede a \u201cdeflationary rally.\u201d While not a one-to-one driver, he said a strong dollar tends to pressure crypto and other risk assets. That macro overlay, combined with what he views as froth in AI-linked equities, underpins his caution beyond the next advance.<\/p>\n

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $103,412.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A day after another billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne says his core thesis is unchanged: the bull cycle\u2019s top is \u201cnot in,\u201d and the market is in the process of printing a weekly cycle low that could set up one more leg higher into year-end. \u201cI\u2019ve been banging on the drum about…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8088,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[22,28,29,32,33,34],"class_list":["post-8087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8087\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8088"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}