{"id":8728,"date":"2025-12-10T06:00:21","date_gmt":"2025-12-10T06:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/expert-declares-bitcoin-has-reached-midpoint-of-bear-cycle-what-lies-ahead\/"},"modified":"2025-12-10T06:00:21","modified_gmt":"2025-12-10T06:00:21","slug":"expert-declares-bitcoin-has-reached-midpoint-of-bear-cycle-what-lies-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/expert-declares-bitcoin-has-reached-midpoint-of-bear-cycle-what-lies-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Declares Bitcoin Has Reached Midpoint Of Bear Cycle: What Lies Ahead?"},"content":{"rendered":"

During what many anticipated would be the year of a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market expert Axel Adler has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at the midpoint of a bear cycle.\u00a0<\/p>\n

A Mild Bear Cycle Compared To History<\/h2>\n

As of now, Bitcoin has recorded a modest year-to-date decline of 4%. However, the cryptocurrency has shown some stability this week, consolidating in the range of $89,000 to $94,000, with the latter figure serving as immediate resistance.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According <\/a>to Adler, this current correction, which stands at approximately -32%, is considered less severe compared to previous bear cycles. He emphasizes that approximately 88% of Bitcoin holdings remain in unrealized profit, while only about 12% of the total supply is currently at a loss.<\/p>\n

Adler points out that Bitcoin’s price action has remained relatively steady within the $90,000 zone, reflecting a mild drawdown in historical context.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The crucial question as the year approaches its end is whether this correction will stabilize between -35% and -40% from its all-time high, indicating a new, more “flattened” cycle, or if the market will follow historical trends that typically lead to deeper declines of -60% to -70%.<\/p>\n

Analyzing past cycles, Adler notes that major bear markets in 2011, 2016, 2019, and 2023 were characterized by a significant increase in the percentage of coins at a loss, often rising to around 60%. These levels typically marked capitulation points in the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

In contrast, the current landscape shows only 12% of holders experiencing unrealized losses, which diverges sharply from the patterns observed during past bear markets.<\/p>\n

Can Bitcoin Avoid Deeper Declines?<\/h2>\n

The expert further noted that during recent local cycle peaks, only about 17% of coins were in the red, a figure that remains three to four times lower than traditional capitulation levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This unusual configuration suggests that the current market may resemble a correction within a bullish supercycle rather than the final downturn of a full-blown bear market.<\/p>\n

Adler believes that the market appears to be testing the resilience of this correction structure, which stands at -32% from its peak, while maintaining a high ratio of profitable positions.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He argues that if Bitcoin can sustain this maximum drawdown above the -35% zone alongside moderate unrealized losses, it could bolster the case for a shift towards more “flat” corrections influenced by institutional demand and a structural supply deficit.<\/p>\n

On the contrary, should Bitcoin’s correction extend beyond the -40% mark, the likelihood of entering a classic bear market increases significantly. Such a scenario would pave the way for deeper declines, potentially reaching the -60% to -70% range, and could trigger a full capitulation phase in terms of unrealized loss metrics.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, the market\u2019s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $93,000, marking gains of 5% and nearly 9% in the 24-hour and 14-day time frames, respectively.<\/p>\n

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During what many anticipated would be the year of a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market expert Axel Adler has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at the midpoint of a bear cycle.\u00a0 A Mild Bear Cycle Compared To History As of now, Bitcoin has recorded a modest year-to-date decline of 4%. However, the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8729,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[22,28,29,265,32,33,34,36,51,250,53],"class_list":["post-8728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-technical-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market","tag-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8728\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}