{"id":9194,"date":"2026-01-03T06:00:20","date_gmt":"2026-01-03T06:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-key-moving-averages-indicate-an-imminent-drop-to-38000\/"},"modified":"2026-01-03T06:00:20","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T06:00:20","slug":"bitcoin-key-moving-averages-indicate-an-imminent-drop-to-38000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/bitcoin-key-moving-averages-indicate-an-imminent-drop-to-38000\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Key Moving Averages Indicate An Imminent Drop To $38,000"},"content":{"rendered":"

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross\u2014a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter).<\/p>\n

Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Martinez emphasized <\/a>the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As seen in the cryptocurrency\u2019s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Two Scenarios For BTC\u2019s Future<\/h2>\n

Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether\u2019s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone.<\/p>\n

Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios<\/a> moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs.<\/p>\n

Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior.<\/p>\n

The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin\"<\/p>\n

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross\u2014a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections.\u00a0 Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9195,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[245],"tags":[22,264,4294,28,29,265,32,33,34,36,51,250,53],"class_list":["post-9194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-chart","tag-bitcoin-death-cross","tag-bitcoin-news","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitcoin-technical-analysis","tag-btc","tag-btc-news","tag-btc-price","tag-btcusdt","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-market","tag-crypto-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9194\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ad-doge.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}